Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ICP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.002837 0.003044 0.003269 0.003532 0.003835 0.004174 0.004588
2024-10-13 0.002507 0.002781 0.003095 0.003490 0.003980 0.004584 0.005407
2024-10-20 0.002226 0.002521 0.002875 0.003341 0.003954 0.004765 0.005976
2024-10-27 0.002075 0.002394 0.002789 0.003332 0.004087 0.005161 0.006933
2024-11-03 0.001868 0.002175 0.002563 0.003107 0.003887 0.005041 0.007066
2024-11-10 0.001797 0.002121 0.002541 0.003149 0.004064 0.005507 0.008314
2024-11-17 0.001747 0.002088 0.002540 0.003218 0.004286 0.006090 0.010040
2024-11-24 0.001673 0.002016 0.002479 0.003190 0.004347 0.006407 0.011378
2024-12-01 0.001640 0.001998 0.002491 0.003270 0.004596 0.007133 0.014227
2024-12-08 0.001584 0.001944 0.002446 0.003255 0.004676 0.007541 0.016575
2024-12-15 0.001521 0.001875 0.002375 0.003193 0.004662 0.007746 0.018477
2024-12-22 0.001499 0.001864 0.002388 0.003266 0.004909 0.008625 0.024496
2024-12-29 0.001474 0.001850 0.002399 0.003347 0.005205 0.009807 0.036462
2025-01-05 0.001424 0.001797 0.002348 0.003315 0.005269 0.010410 0.048682
2025-01-12 0.001355 0.001713 0.002244 0.003182 0.005095 0.010241 0.052696
2025-01-19 0.001319 0.001676 0.002212 0.003175 0.005199 0.011016 0.080908
2025-01-26 0.001243 0.001577 0.002076 0.002968 0.004826 0.010053 0.065038
2025-02-02 0.001223 0.001561 0.002074 0.003007 0.005023 0.011181 0.130625
2025-02-09 0.001210 0.001555 0.002085 0.003071 0.005291 0.012792 0.828587
2025-02-16 0.001180 0.001521 0.002050 0.003045 0.005334 0.013514 NaN
2025-02-23 0.001170 0.001519 0.002066 0.003119 0.005650 0.015855 NaN
2025-03-02 0.001145 0.001492 0.002039 0.003105 0.005727 0.017061 NaN
2025-03-09 0.001115 0.001454 0.001992 0.003048 0.005676 0.017481 NaN